Climate Change Impacts and Projections in Central America and the Caribbean

Central America and the Caribbean are experiencing pronounced warming, shifting rainfall patterns and intensifying extreme events, all driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Mean temperatures have already risen by up to 1.2 °C since the mid-twentieth century, exacerbating heat stress, altering hydrological cycles and contributing to more frequent and severe droughts in the Dry Corridor. Seasonal precipitation is becoming more variable: heavy downpours and flooding threaten coastal and low-lying areas, while agricultural zones face prolonged dry spells that undermine food security. Sea-level rise and stronger tropical storms are eroding shorelines, damaging critical infrastructure and increasing saltwater intrusion into aquifers. Ecosystems from montane cloud forests to coral reefs show signs of stress under warmer, drier conditions, with impacts on biodiversity, fisheries and local livelihoods. Projections under medium-to-high emission scenarios indicate temperature increases of 2–6 °C by the end of the century, with precipitation likely to decrease by up to 40% in certain subregions during peak dry seasons. These changes underscore urgent needs for adaptive governance, resilient infrastructure and transboundary cooperation to safeguard vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Analysis of water footprints in a semi-arid valley in Mexico has revealed how declining rainfall and higher temperatures since the late 1980s have driven substantial increases in irrigation demand. By quantifying green (rainfall), blue (surface and groundwater) and grey (pollution assimilation) water footprints for key crops, researchers demonstrated that extreme dry years now require up to 73% more water for viticulture than for olive cultivation. This temporal assessment highlights the growing unsustainability of current practices and provides a quantitative basis for developing more rational water-use strategies in agricultural landscapes facing climate stress.

Climate Change Impacts and Projections in Central America and the Caribbean publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate change impacts and projections in central america and the caribbean across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Scenarios describing future trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, demographic change and socio-economic development used to drive climate projections.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): An international ensemble of global climate models providing standardised simulations for assessing past, present and future climate.

Water footprint: A metric that quantifies the total volume of freshwater used to produce goods or services, subdivided into green (rainfall), blue (surface and groundwater) and grey (pollution assimilation) components.

Dry Corridor: A region spanning parts of Central America characterised by recurrent droughts and chronic water scarcity, heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture.

References

1. Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region. Frontiers in Climate (2024).
2. A temporal analysis of the consequences of the drought regime on the water footprint of agriculture in the Guadalupe Valley, Mexico. Scientific Reports (2024).
3. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs. Earth Systems and Environment (2021).
4. Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought. Climatic Change (2021).