Climate Extremes and Variability in Southeast Asia

Climate extremes in Southeast Asia are characterised by intense rainfall, prolonged droughts and record-breaking temperature anomalies that have profound impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and human livelihoods. Driven by monsoon dynamics, land–sea thermal contrasts and global teleconnections, regional climate variability manifests across seasonal to interannual timescales. The interplay between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean variability modulates the occurrence of heatwaves and extreme precipitation, while anthropogenic warming amplifies the frequency and intensity of these events. High-resolution observations and model projections reveal a trend towards more frequent heavy rainfall days in the Maritime Continent and heightened temperature extremes over the Indochina Peninsula. This evolving pattern of climate extremes underscores the urgency of refining predictive models, improving early warning systems and formulating adaptive strategies to mitigate socio-economic risks in a region of dense populations and diverse climatic regimes.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have elucidated the drivers of temperature extremes in Southeast Asia, particularly the interplay between global warming and El Niño events. One seminal analysis quantifies the contributions of long-term warming and a strong El Niño to record April temperatures, demonstrating that both natural variability and anthropogenic trends are crucial for anticipating future heatwaves. The work highlights that approximately half of the extreme anomaly can be linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, with the remainder driven by gradual increases in baseline temperatures. These findings emphasise the potential to forecast seasonal extremes several months in advance, enabling improved preparation for heat stress, agricultural disruption and energy demand peaks.

Climate Extremes and Variability in Southeast Asia publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate extremes and variability in southeast asia across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A recurring climate pattern characterised by sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, influencing global weather and monsoon systems.

CMIP6: The sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, providing coordinated climate model experiments to assess future climate under various emission scenarios.

Extreme precipitation days (R20mm): A metric denoting the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 20 mm, used to quantify heavy rainfall events.

Indian Ocean Tripole mode (IOT): A distinctive sea-surface temperature anomaly pattern across the tropical Indian Ocean with three poles of alternating sign, impacting regional circulation and extremes.

References

1. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming. Nature Communications (2017).
2. Future changes in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Environmental Research Letters (2021).
3. Bias evaluation in rainfall over Southeast Asia in CMIP6 models. Journal of Hydrology (2023).
4. Summertime warm extremes over the Indochina Peninsula linked to the tropical Indian Ocean tripole mode. Environmental Research Letters (2025).