Climatology

Climatology is the systematic study of Earth’s climate system, encompassing the atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric and land-surface processes that govern long-term patterns of temperature, precipitation, circulation and other meteorological variables. It integrates observations from weather stations, satellites and palaeoproxies with numerical models to identify the drivers of climate variability—from diurnal cycles to glacial–interglacial shifts—and the mechanisms of anthropogenic change. Key concerns include quantifying natural oscillations and forced trends, understanding feedbacks such as water-vapour and ice-albedo effects, and assessing the frequency and intensity of extremes. By placing present-day observations in a historical context, climatologists evaluate model performance, attribute observed changes to human or natural causes, and produce projections to inform adaptation and mitigation strategies. This multidisciplinary field underpins resource management, disaster preparedness and policy decisions worldwide.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Analyses of long climate model simulations have revealed that purported multidecadal oscillations are not distinguishable from internal noise. Only interannual variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation stands out above the noise background; longer-term spectral peaks in global temperature records align with external forcings, not intrinsic climate cycles. Another strand of work has used proxy reconstructions and models to show that phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability since the Little Ice Age are paced by solar and volcanic forcing mediated through changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Together, these studies challenge the view of self-sustained low-frequency oscillations and demonstrate the dominant role of external drivers in shaping multidecadal climate patterns.

Research from all publishers

A comprehensive review of precipitation extremes under warming confirms that heavy rainfall intensifies with temperature increases at rates near the Clausius–Clapeyron expectation, but also highlights important contributions from changing storm dynamics and microphysics, especially in convective and orographic settings. Analysis of global station data and model projections indicates that precipitation variability—across timescales from daily to decadal—has increased by roughly 3–5 % per degree of warming, amplifying swings between drought and flood. At the storm scale, observational studies show that as surface temperature rises, individual convective cells become more intense but spatially more compact, concentrating rainfall and heightening local flood risks even where mean precipitation remains unchanged.

Climatology publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climatology across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV): Low-frequency fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on ~50–80 year timescales.

Internal variability: Natural fluctuations arising from chaotic interactions within the climate system, independent of external forcings.

Forced response: The component of climate change directly attributable to external drivers such as greenhouse gases, aerosols or solar variability.

Clausius–Clapeyron relation: The physical law stating that atmospheric water-vapour capacity increases by about 7 % per °C of warming, influencing extreme rainfall intensification.

Precipitation variability: Fluctuations in precipitation amounts over time, measured by statistical metrics such as standard deviation or percentile-based indices.

Radiative forcing: The change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere due to a perturbation, such as a change in greenhouse gas concentration or solar irradiance.

References

1. Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations. Nature Communications (2020).
2. Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Age. Nature Communications (2014).
3. A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts. Reviews of Geophysics (2019).
4. Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change. Current Climate Change Reports (2015).
5. Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2021).
6. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Scientific Reports (2017).
7. Reduced spatial extent of extreme storms at higher temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters (2016).