Cold Anomalies in East Asian Winter Climate

Cold anomalies across East Asia during winter manifest as episodic departures below climatological temperature norms, often driven by large-scale circulation shifts and coupled ocean–atmosphere processes. Key drivers include the strengthening of the Siberian High, meridional wave trains that propagate from remote regions, and blocking highs that impede zonal flow. Tropical Pacific and North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies modulate these patterns via atmospheric teleconnections, while stratospheric disturbances can amplify surface cold outbreaks. Such events have profound societal impacts on agriculture, energy demand and ecosystem services, and underpin efforts to improve seasonal forecasting and adaptive planning.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have advanced understanding of anomalous cold in East Asia by elucidating upper-level and surface interactions. One investigation into extreme cold during April 2020 attributed the event to the combined action of a blocking ridge over Siberia and an East Atlantic–Western Russia pattern. A wave train originating in Western Europe and intensified blocking days over Siberia promoted a robust northerly flow into northeastern Asia, precipitating one of the coldest Aprils on record. In another analysis of the so-called global warming hiatus from the late 1990s onward, wintertime cold extremes over land were shown to increase in frequency. These cold surges were linked to a pattern akin to the warm-Arctic–cold-continents mode, distinct from the drivers of warm extremes, and underscore the role of natural variability in regional temperature anomalies.

Cold Anomalies in East Asian Winter Climate publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in cold anomalies in east asian winter climate across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Teleconnection: A large-scale atmospheric link between distant regions transmitted by planetary-scale waves.

Blocking: A quasi-stationary high-pressure anomaly that obstructs usual westerly flow, leading to prolonged weather patterns.

Siberian High: A semi-permanent high-pressure centre over central Eurasia in winter, central to cold air outbreaks.

Stratospheric Sudden Warming: A rapid increase in polar stratospheric temperature that disrupts the polar vortex and influences tropospheric circulation.

Arctic Oscillation: A mode of variability defined by pressure contrast between the Arctic and midlatitudes, modulating cold air incursions.

References

1. Causes for an extreme cold condition over Northeast Asia during April 2020. Scientific Reports (2023).
2. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown. Nature Communications (2018).
3. Characteristics and mechanisms of the severe compound cold-wet event in southern China during February 2022. Environmental Research Letters (2023).
4. Seasonal Cumulative Effect of Ural Blocking Episodes on the Frequent Cold events in China during the Early Winter of 2020/21. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2022).
5. Influence of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming on the Unprecedented Cold Wave in East Asia in January 2021. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2022).