ENSO Impacts on East Asian Climate Variability
Summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a profound influence on the seasonal and subseasonal climate of East Asia, modulating rainfall, temperature and atmospheric circulation via large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm and cold phases of ENSO alter tropical convection in the equatorial Pacific, generating Rossby wave trains that propagate poleward and eastward into the mid-latitudes. These teleconnections shift the position and strength of the western North Pacific anticyclone and influence the intensity of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), with consequences for winter precipitation over southern China, temperature extremes over eastern China and variability in monsoon onset and withdrawal. The ENSO signal is non-stationary on subseasonal timescales, with midwinter breakdowns in teleconnection patterns and modulation by other modes such as the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Improved understanding of these dynamics has enhanced seasonal to subseasonal predictability, informing agricultural planning, water resource management and disaster preparedness across the region.
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ENSO Impacts on East Asian Climate Variability publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in enso impacts on east asian climate variability across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific characterised by anomalous warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) of sea surface temperatures and associated shifts in atmospheric circulation.
Teleconnection: A statistical linkage between climate anomalies in geographically distant regions, mediated by large-scale wave patterns in the atmosphere.
Rossby wave train: A sequence of large-scale meanders in the westerly jet stream that transmits energy from the tropics to mid and high latitudes, shaping regional weather patterns.
East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM): The seasonal wind system characterised by cold, dry northerly flows originating over Siberia, influencing winter temperatures and precipitation across East Asia.
References
- Midwinter breakdown of ENSO climate impacts in East Asia. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2023).
- Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China. Environmental Research Letters (2017).
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