Madden-Julian Oscillation Teleconnections in Climate Dynamics

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) constitutes the primary mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, manifesting as large-scale eastward-propagating convective and circulation anomalies over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Its teleconnections arise as these tropical perturbations excite Rossby wave trains that propagate into extratropical regions, modulating weather regimes across Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas on subseasonal timescales. Interactions with background states such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) further govern the strength, phase and pathway of these links. Research has demonstrated that MJO teleconnections influence extreme precipitation clustering, surface temperature anomalies and rapid intensification of tropical cyclones, offering a valuable source of predictability. Advancing our physical understanding and representation of these processes is critical for improving subseasonal forecasts and for anticipating societal impacts of compound climate extremes globally.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Observational composite analyses have revealed that the frequency of compound hydrometeorological extremes in the western United States is strongly modulated by concurrent phases of the MJO and ENSO. In this study, researchers demonstrated that the canonical relationship between ENSO and compound precipitation-temperature extremes can be substantially altered, or even interrupted, by the passage of MJO convective pulses. These findings suggest that incorporating both MJO phase and ENSO state into subseasonal forecasting frameworks can enhance predictive skill for the timing and magnitude of compound extremes. This work also emphasises the importance of capturing cross-scale interactions in Earth system models to refine risk assessments for water resources and heatwaves.

Madden-Julian Oscillation Teleconnections in Climate Dynamics publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in madden-julian oscillation teleconnections in climate dynamics across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): A large-scale eastward-moving tropical disturbance of organised convection and circulation on 30–90 day timescales.

Teleconnection: A remote linkage by which tropical or extratropical anomalies influence weather patterns at distant locations through atmospheric wave propagation.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon characterised by anomalous warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, modulating global climate patterns.

Rossby wave: A planetary-scale atmospheric wave resulting from the Earth’s rotation and variation of the Coriolis force, which transmits energy and momentum poleward and downstream.

Subseasonal predictability: The capacity to forecast atmospheric and oceanic states on lead times of approximately two to eight weeks, exploiting sources of low-frequency variability.

References

1. Association of western US compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction. Communications Earth & Environment (2024).
2. Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI. Environmental Research Climate (2023).
3. The Indo‐Pacific Rim at Risk: How Rossby Waves Contribute to Extreme Precipitation Clustering. Geophysical Research Letters (2024).
4. Impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Northwestern Pacific During Winter. Remote Sensing (2025).
5. ENSO Modulation of MJO Teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe. Geophysical Research Letters (2019).
6. Dominant patterns of winter-time intraseasonal surface air temperature over the CONUS in response to MJO convections. Climate Dynamics (2019).