Northeast Monsoon Dynamics and Variability
Summary
The northeast monsoon, occurring primarily between December and February, is driven by a seasonal reversal in wind direction over South and Southeast Asia as the continental landmass cools relative to the Indian Ocean. This reversal establishes a pressure gradient that transports moisture‐laden winds toward peninsular India, Sri Lanka and parts of Southeast Asia, producing significant rainfall for agriculture, water resources and ecosystems. Variability in the monsoon arises from interactions between large-scale atmospheric phenomena—such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation—and regional factors including sea surface temperature anomalies in the Bay of Bengal and the configuration of the subtropical westerly jet. At interannual to decadal timescales, changes in ocean–atmosphere coupling and shifting epochs of active and weak phases have been linked to variations in rainfall intensity, onset timing and extreme precipitation events. Under a warming climate, trends suggest enhancement of heavy rainfall extremes and alterations in monsoon onset and withdrawal, with wide-ranging implications for flood risk, water management and coastal stability.
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Northeast Monsoon Dynamics and Variability publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in northeast monsoon dynamics and variability across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): A tropical intraseasonal variability pattern characterised by eastward-propagating convective and circulation anomalies that modulate rainfall over the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific, comprising El Niño and La Niña phases, that exerts strong influence on global and regional monsoon rainfall.
Vertical wind shear: The change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere, which affects moisture transport and convective organisation during monsoon circulation.
Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor effect: A mechanism by which El Niño–induced warming in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean alters atmospheric circulation, influencing subsequent regional rainfall patterns.
References
- The Influence of Weather Patterns and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on Extreme Precipitation Over Sri Lanka. Geophysical Research Letters (2023).
- Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the first inter-monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka in the post-El Niño years. Frontiers in Climate (2024).
- In Situ Observation of Near-Surface Wind Seasonal Variation on the Southern Coast of Sri Lanka. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (2023).
- Precursors of northeast monsoon rainfall variability during extreme epochs of the global warming era. Meteorological Applications (2020).
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