Regional Climate Modeling and Precipitation Variability in West Africa

Regional climate modelling in West Africa integrates high‐resolution dynamical downscaling with global projections to resolve the complex interaction between the West African monsoon, land–sea contrasts and topographical features that shape rainfall variability. RCM ensembles, nested within global climate models, aim to capture convective processes, monsoon onset and the bimodal precipitation regime characteristic of the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel. Observational records and reanalyses reveal substantial interannual and intra‐seasonal fluctuations driven by sea‐surface temperature anomalies, land‐surface feedbacks and remote teleconnections. While twentieth‐century trends point to a partial recovery of monsoonal rains, spatial biases persist in both global and regional simulations, particularly in the intensity and timing of seasonal peaks. Advances in model physics and land‐surface parameterisation have improved the representation of extreme events and dry‐spell dynamics, enhancing the robustness of future projections. Ensemble projections consistently foresee alterations in mean seasonal totals and an increase in extreme rainfall intensity under warming scenarios, carrying significant implications for agriculture, water security and flood risk management. High‐resolution studies thus provide vital inputs for regional adaptation and resilience planning.

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Regional Climate Modeling and Precipitation Variability in West Africa publication trend

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Technical terms

Regional Climate Model (RCM): A computational framework that dynamically downscales coarse global projections to finer spatial scales, capturing local topography, convection and land–atmosphere feedbacks.

Global Climate Model (GCM): A numerical representation of Earth’s climate system that simulates large‐scale interactions among atmosphere, ocean, land surface and ice on a coarse grid.

Downscaling: The process of refining coarse GCM output to higher resolution, either dynamically (via RCMs) or statistically, to improve representation of regional climate features.

References

1. Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models. Environmental Research Letters (2024).
2. The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble. Environmental Research Letters (2018).
3. What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models. Climate Dynamics (2019).