Extended Data Fig. 6: Impact of vaccine efficacy on IXCHIQ risks and benefits.
From: A framework for risk–benefit analysis of vaccines approved through accelerated pathways
(a) Probability that the IXCHIQ vaccine benefits outweigh the risks of vaccine SAEs and vaccine deaths by age group and epidemiological scenario, assuming a vaccine efficacy of 50%. Open diamonds show the evidence available at the end of the trial and solid circles show all evidence currently available. Vertical dashed line denotes 95% probability (n = 100,000 posterior samples). (b) Impact of changes in vaccine efficacy on cases averted by IXCHIQ vaccination. Number of medically attended chikungunya cases / SAEs or deaths averted per 10,000 vaccinated in each age group (colors) by epidemiological scenario (columns). The dashed horizontal line indicates the threshold of zero net benefit. Negative values (shaded region) indicate net harm. Solid line represents mean estimates and shaded region represent 95% uncertainty intervals derived from n = 100,000 binomial samples. Dashed vertical line indicates baseline efficacy of 95%. SAE: serious adverse event.
