Fig. 2: Risk thresholds for concluding vaccine benefits across diseases.
From: A framework for risk–benefit analysis of vaccines approved through accelerated pathways
Maximum acceptable probability of severe outcome following vaccination (colour scale) to ensure that vaccine benefits outweigh the risks, as a function of the attack rate (x axis) and the probability of severe outcome following infection (y axis). Data points represent disease–age group combinations: CHIKV (purple), COVID-19 in 2020 (dark pink) and 2022 (light pink), EV (green), MeV in the current era (light blue) and pre-vaccination era (dark blue). Symbols indicate age groups: open squares (25–44 years), open triangles (18–64 years), filled triangles (65+ years) and filled squares (75+ years). Estimates are shown assuming 50% or 95% vaccine efficacy (VE) against severe outcomes. Severe outcomes following infection are medically attended disease (CHIKV), hospitalization (COVID-19, MeV) or death (EV). See Extended Data Table 1 for a full overview of parameters. EV, ebola virus; MeV, measles virus; SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
