Summary
Climate change science examines how alterations in Earth’s energy balance—primarily through rising concentrations of greenhouse gases—drive shifts in atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric and land-surface systems. Solar radiation absorbed by the surface is re-emitted as infrared energy, which molecules such as carbon dioxide and methane partially trap, producing the greenhouse effect. Feedback processes—water-vapour amplification, ice-albedo loss and cloud adjustments—modulate this warming. The ocean has absorbed over 90 % of excess heat and roughly one-third of anthropogenic carbon, altering its stratification and circulation, while ice sheets and permafrost are retreating and sea ice cover is shrinking. Terrestrial ecosystems respond via changes in vegetation growth, soil carbon turnover and hydrological cycles. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns—El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and monsoon systems—mediate heat and moisture redistribution and influence the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts and storms. By integrating long-term observations (satellite, in situ and palaeoclimate proxies) with high-resolution earth-system models and scenario analyses, researchers quantify past changes, attribute observed trends to natural and anthropogenic drivers and project future trajectories to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Research from Nature Portfolio
Analyses of climate model control simulations and observational datasets reveal no robust evidence for intrinsic interdecadal or multidecadal oscillations beyond the well-known El Niño–Southern Oscillation, indicating that longer-term temperature fluctuations reflect external forcings rather than self-sustained internal cycles. In situ measurements of North African mineral dust have revised its single-scattering albedo upward, showing that many models overestimate dust absorption and thereby its warming contribution. Satellite and reanalysis studies also demonstrate that weak stratospheric polar-vortex states and sudden stratospheric warmings significantly elevate the likelihood of severe cold-air outbreaks, heatwave clusters and mid-latitude storm-track perturbations, highlighting the predictive value of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for sub-seasonal extreme events.
Topic trend for the past 5 years
The graph below shows the article count in Nature Index journals for climate change science.
* The ‘Current Index’ represents data for a 12-month rolling window, the current window is 1 May 2025 - 30 April 2026.
Technical terms
Greenhouse effect: Trapping of outgoing infrared radiation by atmospheric gases, warming the surface and lower atmosphere.
Radiative forcing: Net change in Earth’s energy budget at the top of the atmosphere due to a perturbation (e.g. increased CO₂), expressed in W m⁻².
Climate feedback: Process that amplifies or diminishes the response of the climate system to an initial forcing (e.g. water-vapour feedback).
Climate sensitivity: Equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature following a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Dominant interannual fluctuation in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, affecting global weather patterns.
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV): Low-frequency fluctuations in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures on ~50–80 year timescales.
Stratosphere–troposphere coupling: Downward influence of stratospheric circulation anomalies (e.g. polar-vortex disturbances) on surface weather extremes.
Notable articles in climate change science
- The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations. Nature (2016).
- Intensification of subhourly heavy rainfall. Science (2022).
- Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change. Nature Climate Change (2016).
- Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nature Communications (2015).
- Short-term modulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by West Asian dust. Nature Geoscience (2014).
About these summaries
This Nature Research Intelligence Topic summary is created with the cited references and a large language model. We take care to ground generated text with facts, and have systems in place to gain human feedback on the overall quality of the process in line with our AI principles. We strive to create accurate and useful summaries for people unfamiliar with the research topic and that supports this goal. These pages are a beta release and will be updated as we learn how best to help people gain value from a research topic summary.
Research
Position of Climate Change Science in Nature Index by Count
Leading institutions
Collaboration
Top 5 leading collaborators in Climate Change Science
Collaborating institutions
Note: Hover over the bars to view details about each institution's Share.
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